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>What Five State Will Rebound First Economically

>Market Watch has run an article by an Orlando writer,          , reporting that there is a housing recovery on the way. They name Oklahoma, Iowa, North and South Dakota as the likeliest to rebound first.

I happen to believe housing will take a much longer time to rebound. I think we have to see what the results of the massive inflation is going to be like. Inflation? Yes, in commodity prices. If that happens, which everyone is pointing to, then building products will skyrocket in price. Yes, then there will be a housing recovery of sorts. But it won’t be in new construction. Things will be too expensive for that.

By that I mean concrete, lumber, and finished products like cabinets and flooring. Everything will be expensive if the bottom falls out of the dollar, which it is going to do, and soon. But there will be one housing market th at should benefit. That’s the used house market.

If people can’t afford to build, they will buy an old house and take a few years to remodel it. Even that will be expensive, but not as expensive as building a new home. Eventually, however, prices of used homes will also skyrocket – and that’s exactly what the real estate bigwigs should be touting today in order to get some business in the door.

I would love to see a booming housing market. It’s good for everyone. America was thriving when th e housing market  was booming. But don’t expect it to be the first area of our economy to benefit by any recession recovery. One of the traps people get into is thinking that since recessions are always short-term, that this recession will also be short? It’s already three years old, so it’s time we declare it over with. Right?
Wrong? That’s the falacy of the current Obama Administration. They have wrongly declared the recession is over and that the bailouts have done the trick. Wrong again. Bailouts were innefective in helping businesses and thus joblessness has soared. Oh, it came down a bit, to 9.4 percent, but even that is artificial. A lot of that has to do with people who went off government aid and were automatically declared employed. Which they aren’t. Watch for the massive inflation bust, before the end of the recession.

By Steve Kerch, MarketWatch
ORLANDO, Fla. (MarketWatch) — Housing will rebound moderately in 2011, economists at the International Building Show here are predicting and should gain even more steam in 2012.
But the recovery in home building and home sales will vary widely from one part of the country to another, with the states that had the most success during the boom times of the last decade being the last to come back from their historic bust, according to an analysis from the Portland Cement Association.

Opinion Journal: Texas Is the Model

Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher says there’s a reason the Lone Star State keeps growing.
“The headwinds are still facing us in housing. They are less than they were but they are still in place,” said Edward Sullivan, chief economist for the PCA, who examined data on mortgage delinquencies, unemployment rates and home-price declines to create a state-by-state recovery prediction.
The housing markets that still face the hardest going, led by Nevada, account for more than 50% of the U.S. housing market, Sullivan pointed out, while those that will recover the fastest make up only 20%. That means the better times in those states won’t do much to lift overall national housing numbers.

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