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>From Stimulus To Cold Turkey In One Year

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MONEYANDMARKETS»

Monday, June 14, 2010
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Glimpses of the End Game 
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

Dear Don,
Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.
Anyone not blinded by greed can plainly see the sick cycle we’re in:
First, the government helps create a great asset bubble.
Next, the government-created bubble bursts under a dark cloud of hardship for millions of Americans, and …
Last, the government responds by creating still ANOTHER bubble, often far more dangerous than the previous.
A rare sequence of events? Hardly.
Just in the past dozen years, we’ve already seen three — the tech bubble and wreck … the housing bubble and bust … and now the sovereign debt explosion and implosion.
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So by this time, millions of investors already know the drill. What they don’t know is the answer to the biggest question of all:
What’s the End Game?
Will the world’s money printing presses inevitably run amuck, trashing any remaining value in paper currencies?
Will major governments ultimately default on their debts, destroying the global credit system?
Will our entire civilization crumble?
My answer: The threats are certainly real. But the final outcome could be very different indeed.
In fact, no matter how many tricks governments may play and no matter how wild this 21st century roller-coaster ride may get, there will also be another possible end game:Austerity.
Austerity can come in many forms: Governments may impose austerity strictly in reaction to market-driven forces … or by pro-actively taking the lead. Austerity may come with wild inflation … or without. It could trigger deep social upheaval … or merely sporadic protests.
But regardless of how austerity finally arrives, it cannot happen without across-the-board cutbacks in government payrolls, severe reductions in unemployment benefits, massive cuts in pensions, big hits to social welfare programs, and invariably, NO MORE ECONOMIC STIMULUS!
New Austerity Measures Sweep The Globe
Hard to believe? Then take a closer look at the sudden rush to austerity announced just in the past few weeks …
Greece has finally bowed to unrelenting attacks from global investors and is slashing 30 billion euros from its budget in three years.
Spain, also under massive pressure from investors, has announced spending cuts of 15 billion euros, plus a 5 percent reduction in public worker wages.
Portugal is getting ready to embark on a program to cut 2 billion euros this year alone.
Italy is slashing 25 billion euros from its budget over the next two years.
Germany, supposedly the most robust of all euro-zone countries, has no choice but to follow a similar path — cutbacks of 85 billion euros by 2014.
But this is just the beginning.
In the UK, newly elected Prime Minister David Cameron has wasted no time in confessing that Britain’s financial situation is “even worse than we thought.” He has blatantly declared how sharply he’s going to break with his predecessors on stimulus programs … how hard he’s going to slam down on the brakes, and … how quickly he’s going to prescribe a harsh regimen of spending cuts.
Expect cutbacks of at least 6.2 billion pounds this year alone.
In Japan — where newly installed leadership is also trying to make a clean break with the past — we see the same pattern: Late last week, Prime Minister Naoto Kan pulled no punches in declaring that …
Japan’s “outstanding public debt is huge” …
Its “public finances have become the worst of any developed country” …
And the entire country is at “risk of collapse.”
Even in Washington, voices advocating a second round of stimulus have suddenly gone silent. According to the New York Times,
“At a moment when many economists warn that the American economic recovery is likely to be imperiled by prolonged high unemployment and slow growth, President Obama is discovering that the tools available to him last year — a big economic stimulus and action by the Federal Reserve — are both now politically untenable.
“The mood in both parties of Congress has turned decidedly anti-deficit, meaning that the job-creation programs once favored by the White House and Democratic leaders in Congress have been cut back, then cut again.
“It is a measure of the mood that Mr. Obama on Tuesday hailed an initiative by his administration to cut the budgets of most major government agencies by 5 percent, at a time when conventional theory would call for more government spending to lift the economy.”
Will politicians in Washington, Tokyo, London, Berlin, Rome, Lisbon, Madrid, or Greece cut enough to restore fiscal balance? I doubt it.
But never forget:
These governments are the ones that injected the mega doses of stimulants into the bloodstream of their economies last year. And these governments are also the ones that everyone hoped would provide the NEXT big fix.
Now, even if they don’t cut their budgets by a penny — even if they simply fail to renewtheir stimulus programs — the impact could be severe.
This isn’t rocket science, Don.
The U.S., Europe and Japan are addicted to stimulus. But instead of more injections, governments are now prescribing cold turkey.
Even if they don’t cut very much, instead of more economic recovery, we will inevitably see severe withdrawal pains and another major slump.
My recommendation:
Don’t wait. for the Biggest Shock of All.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin



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>How The LHC Will Be Powerful Enough To Transmit Data Faster Than Today’s Web

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The network, dubbed the Grid, has been set up by the Cern labs in Geneva to tap into the processing power of computers in 12 countries.

The aim of the project is to handle data from an experiment on how the Universe began.

Cern believes the Grid could eventually provide people access to a vast pool of processing power from their desktops.

Next-gen net

The idea behind Grid technology is to link up computers around the world over the internet to create a new generation of enormously powerful machines.

The networks are needed because some problems in science are just too large for any one machine to tackle by itself.

Cern’s Grid will initially be used to handle the terabytes of data generated by an upcoming particle accelerator called the Large Hadron Collider (LHC).

The technology now being deployed for particle physics will ultimately change the way that science and business are undertaken in the years to come
Ian Halliday, PParc

The LHC is going to test the Big Bang theory by smashing protons together at high energies.

The data generate by the experiment are expected to fill the equivalent of more than 20 million CDs a year and some 70,000 computers would be needed to analyse the data.

With the LHC Computing Grid project, scientists will be able to access computing resources across the world as though they were on their machine.

“The Grid enables us to harness the power of scientific computing centres wherever they may be to provide the most powerful computing resource the world has to offer,” said Les Robertson, project manager at Cern.

‘Profound effect’

The first phase covers processing resources from research institutes in 12 countries – the UK, the US, Switzerland, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Russia, Spain, and Taiwan.

The final goal of the Grid is to bring together the computing power of scientific centres across the world to create a virtual supercomputer network.

In the long-term, Grid technology is predicted to revolutionise the world of computing. Ultimately it is expected to be able to provide huge processing power on tap to anyone.

“The technology now being deployed for particle physics will ultimately change the way that science and business are undertaken in the years to come,” said Ian Halliday, Chief Executive of the UK’s Particle Physics and Astronomy Research Council, (PParc).

“This will have a profound effect on the way society uses information technology, much as the worldwide web did.”

The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is being built in a circular tunnel 27 km in circumference. The tunnel is buried around 50 to 175 m. underground. It straddles the Swiss and French borders on the outskirts of Geneva.

It planned to circulate the first beams in May 2008. First collisions at high energy are expected mid-2008 with the first results from the experiments soon after.
Large Hadron Collider: The Discovery Machine

A global collaboration of scientists is preparing to start up the greatest particle physics experiment in history