>I believe the government’s efforts to bail out Citigroup, AIG, and other financial institutions are doomed to failure: Their numbers are wrong, their theories are upside down, and they’re fighting the wrong war. (For the full exposé I presented at the National Press Club last month, see my white paper, “Dangerous Unintended Consequences: How Banking Bailouts, Buyouts and Nationalization Can Only Prolong America’s Second Great Depression and Weaken Any Subsequent Recovery.”) But we’re not the only ones finding fatal flaws in official numbers and conclusions. John Williams of ShadowStats.com has been persistently doing so with the government’s official data on inflation and unemployment, among other key measures.
His latest estimate of the true March unemployment rate in the United States: 19.8 percent!
Hard to believe? Then consider the facts:
Fact #1. Fatally Flawed Official Unemployment Number
The U.S. government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shocked the world Friday with the release of its official, headline unemployment number: A surge from 8.1 percent to 8.5 percent.
But it’s really a lot worse. This number (called “U-3”), although invariably cited by the press in the headlines, is the narrowest, most sugarcoated measure of U.S. joblessness:
- It excludes workers seeking full-time jobs, failing to find them, and then accepting part-time work that almost invariably pays far less.
- It excludes discouraged workers who have given up looking for jobs because they can’t find any.
- And, as if that wasn’t enough to color the truth, the BLS has been consistently and grossly understating the current unemployment numbers, not revising them until months later when fewer people are paying attention.